MANILA – Consumer confidence in the Philippines posted its record-high index of 13.1 percent in the second quarter of 2017, which respondents of the central bank survey attributed partly to improved peace and order situation.
It is the fourth consecutive quarter that consumer confidence stayed in positive territory since rising to 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2016 or the start of the Duterte administration.
Results of the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for the second quarter of 2017 showed that other factors cited by the respondents are additional family income due to higher salary and stronger business activity, availability of more jobs and increase in the number of employed family members, and effective government policies.
In a briefing Friday, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Department of Economic Statistics (DES) Director Rosabel B. Guerrero said sustained positive consumer confidence in the second quarter this year was also due to the financial assistance of the government for the poor such as the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) and increase in pensions, the expected increase in remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) ahead of enrollment for school year 2017-18, and an expected good harvest.
She said the improved outlook was registered across all income groups, namely the high-income group or those with monthly family income of P30,000 and over; the middle- income group or those with monthly family of P10,000-P29,999; and the low-income group or those with family income of less than P10,000.
“The high-income group remained to be the most optimistic, as they expected the presence of more investors in the country,” the central bank said in a report.
The respondents, numbering around 5,375 households taken from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) Master Sample List of Households, are also optimistic on their year-ahead outlook, with the index at 34.3 percent from 31.7 percent on the survey done in the first quarter of the year.
However, the index for the third quarter declined to 13.6 percent from 16.5 percent, which Guerrero said was attributed to expected price hikes of goods and higher expenses due to the start of the new school year.
The respondents forecast inflation rate to decrease for the year ahead, the interest rate to increase, the peso-dollar exchange rate to depreciate, the unemployment rate to increase and the prices of basic goods and services to increase.
The survey was conducted between April 1 and 12, 2017, or before President Rodrigo R. Duterte declared martial law in Mindanao last May 23.
Guerrero said results of third quarter 2017 CES would likely not be as good as the second quarter, but stressed that the difference might not be that big.
“It could (be lower) but not that much because the conflict (in Marawi) is quite contained,” he said.
“Although that could affect the perception of respondents in Marawi (City) and in the nearby areas but I guess the impact would not be that significant as to affect the positive outlook of consumers,” she added.
