MANILA, Philippines – It is unlikely that the United States-North Korea rift would escalate into a full-blown war because the US would take into consideration the war’s effect on its Asian allies such as South Korea and Japan.
This is the reading of the situation by diplomacy and security expert Robert Kelly, associate professor of international relations in the Political Science and Diplomacy Department of Pusan National University in Busan, Korea, who on Friday gave a talk in the Philippines during a forum on Korean studies organized by the Ateneo de Manila University.
Also, Kelly said the intervention of the Philippines and other members of the Asean to help pacify the tense situation in the Korean Peninsula would have a little impact. He said the better strategy would be to have China use its leverage on North Korea.
China is North Korea’s most important ally and biggest trading partner.
China’s support for North Korea started during the Korean War (1950–1953) when its troops flooded the Korean Peninsula to aid its northern ally.
Since the war, China has been lending political and economic support to North Korea leaders Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un.
Strains in China’s relationship with North Korea surfaced when Pyongyang tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006 and Beijing supported UN Security Council Resolution 1718, which imposed sanctions on Pyongyang.
Late last month, China Prime Minister Xi Jinping urged US President Donald Trump to show restraint toward North Korea despite its continued nuclear test efforts.
Xi indicated to Trump that China was opposing such tests by North Korea but at the same time hoped that “that all sides exercise restraint and avoid doing things that exacerbate tensions on the peninsula.”
Last Wednesday, it was reported that Xi had discussed about North Korea during his phone conversation with President Rodrigo Duterte, who referred to China’s important role in promoting peace on the Korean Peninsula.
Duterte was quoted in news reports as saying that he had spoken with Xi to convince the Chinese leader to play a bigger role in defusing tension in the Korean peninsula after North Korea test fired another missile early Saturday.
On Thursday, Duterte was also quoted in news reports as saying that his phone conversation with Xi was at the behest of Trump.
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